top of page

How to extract a long term forecast on a stock from intra-day trading activity

Hello Readers,


Thanks for reviewing my analysis. Please see the updated model as of the evening of Feb 18, 2021 for CVS Health. This version of my model includes the latest earnings release and ties out to today’s market activity. Congratulations to any of you who capitalized on the short positions, mentioned in the title of the last post. That paid off on earnings day. I think those investors were correct about the long-term effect of the minimum wage hike on the stock when compared to the rest of the S&P 500.


Focusing on today’s trading, it appears that much of the volume in the stock’s movement during today’s session was by a firm using a two-stage model like the one attached. The largest associated position was probably pulled this afternoon between 12:15 and the close (possibly at 12:40 in manner that did not increase volume in the stock), or they revised their long-term outlook on the stock’s profitability. I am not sure what would have caused the upward revision. My first thought would be that the revision was a knee jerk reaction to an update in the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program, but I have not read of any such news yet confirming that hunch.


Please note, I do not hold a position in CVS, but am willing to build out a functioning multi-stage model so you, the reader do not have to manipulate the growth rate during intra-day trading. My fees are reasonable, just email me for details. I can be reached at sales@unreformedandbroker.com.


If you would like to reverse engineer my work, I time stamped the prices pulled to manipulate the model, on lines 48, 49, and 50.


Also, I want to make sure I’m giving credit where credit is due. The image in the email that was provided to the readers who have have signed up to receive updates, was pulled from Finance.Yahoo.com.


Warmest Regards,




Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page