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Proper Valuations For 1 25 2022



Good afternoon,


Tough few weeks in the market for those that are terrible at probability math. Hilly rides can be gut wrenching if you haven’t been investing in hedged portfolio positions. I am sure many of you following the markets feel like Kth plated with confusion in this motivational video. However, for those of you who have been keeping a hedged book, I hope you have been capitalizing on the rewards. Regarding the Long Short Portfolio, If you had invested the recommended 392K in the positions detailed on 8/23 and kept up with the academic changes, you would now have over 540K in the investment. If you had invested that 392K in the index, at the end of day today, you would have a little under 363K.


Understanding probability math is important, it allows for one to analyze a pattern once they have discovered it.


I attached the portfolio’s most recent positions. Apologies for not incorporating in the new changes to the index yet. I am still working on pricing them. They were securities I had not been covering. I am still working on it. To recap, on December 21st the below changes were made to the Nasdaq Composite 100.


These securities were removed:

CERN Cerner Corporation Common Stock

INCY Incyte Corp. Common Stock

CDW CDW Corporation Common Stock

CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. Ordinary Shares

FOXA Fox Corporation Class A Common Stock

TCOM Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares

FOX Fox Corporation Class B Common Stock

And these securities were added:

ABNB Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock

DDOG Datadog, Inc. Class A Common Stock

FTNT Fortinet, Inc. Common Stock

LCID Lucid Group, Inc. Common Stock

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Common Stock

ZS Zscaler, Inc. Common Stock


Yesterday, on 1/24 another security was replaced. The change is detailed below.

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Common Stock added

PTON Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock removed


Hopefully Old Dominion comes barreling in like those crazy Canadian Truckers being cheered on at our border. The described portfolio is attached. As always please note this is academic research, and not investment advice. The full disclosure is on the home page of the site.





Warmest Regards,

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